President Trump issued an executive order in March 2025 directing steps to close the Department of Education and return authority to states, followed by staff reductions, program transfers to other agencies, and recent moves to shift special education and civil rights oversight. Full statutory elimination, however, requires congressional legislation to repeal the department’s authorizing statute and reallocate its functions, including student aid and grant programs. With the current Senate composition, any such measure would likely face a filibuster requiring 60 votes, and no bill advancing complete abolition has advanced. These procedural and political hurdles explain why traders assign a 92% implied probability that the department will remain intact through 2026.