**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of U.S. annexation in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of completed diplomatic agreements, sovereignty transfers, or congressional approvals despite early-year rhetoric.** President Trump’s public statements favoring acquisition of Greenland, including negotiations or other options, along with a January 2026 House bill authorizing steps toward annexation or statehood, generated initial attention. These efforts produced no treaties, referendums, or legislative outcomes by mid-June. Danish and Greenlandic officials rejected any cession, while European allies voiced diplomatic opposition and reinforced existing security frameworks without territorial changes. References to other areas remained rhetorical, and U.S. actions in Venezuela involved leadership changes rather than formal incorporation. Annexation requires Senate-ratified agreements, host consent, and sustained momentum that has not developed. Historical precedent shows the United States has not pursued new foreign territorial annexations in decades, favoring influence through alliances and economic tools instead. With half the year elapsed and no procedural breakthroughs, traders assign only an 8% chance to a “Yes” outcome before December 31.