The high probability assigned to no US territorial annexation occurring in 2026 reflects the absence of any official administration statements, legislative proposals, or diplomatic negotiations indicating expansion plans. Annexation would require congressional authorization under Article IV of the Constitution, Senate ratification of related treaties, and broad international acceptance, none of which are currently advancing. Recent policy focus has remained on border security measures, existing alliance commitments, and trade negotiations rather than new territorial claims. With no scheduled summits or legislative timelines pointing toward acquisition, traders see limited pathways for such an outcome before year-end, consistent with long-standing US practice of avoiding formal annexations in the modern era.