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icon for 2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）

2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）

icon for 2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）

2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）

1.38–1.41ºC 38%

1.42–1.45ºC 36%

>1.45ºC 25%

1.34–1.37ºC 16%

Polymarket
最新

1.38–1.41ºC 38%

1.42–1.45ºC 36%

>1.45ºC 25%

1.34–1.37ºC 16%

Polymarket
最新

<1.30ºC

$22 交易量

5%

1.30–1.33ºC

$0 交易量

12%

1.34–1.37ºC

$110 交易量

16%

1.38–1.41ºC

$0 交易量

38%

1.42–1.45ºC

$332 交易量

32%

>1.45ºC

$0 交易量

25%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent July 2026 global surface temperatures reached 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, tying for the second-warmest July on record amid developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific, which are boosting ocean heat content and atmospheric warmth. Trader consensus centers on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin as model runs and early August daily peaks (including record surface air temperatures near 17.04 °C) point to continued but not extreme monthly elevation, while the >1.45 °C outcome reflects upside risk from stronger ENSO amplification. Key differentiators include final observational adjustments from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus, regional heat patterns, and any late-month cooling, with updated forecasts expected to refine probabilities before month-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$464
結束日期
2026-09-01
市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent July 2026 global surface temperatures reached 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, tying for the second-warmest July on record amid developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific, which are boosting ocean heat content and atmospheric warmth. Trader consensus centers on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin as model runs and early August daily peaks (including record surface air temperatures near 17.04 °C) point to continued but not extreme monthly elevation, while the >1.45 °C outcome reflects upside risk from stronger ENSO amplification. Key differentiators include final observational adjustments from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus, regional heat patterns, and any late-month cooling, with updated forecasts expected to refine probabilities before month-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$464
結束日期
2026-09-01
市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.38–1.41ºC" at 38%, followed by "1.42–1.45ºC" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）" is "1.38–1.41ºC" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.42–1.45ºC" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.