China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 12.0%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,751 交易量
$26,751 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
12%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
37%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 12.0%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,751 交易量
$26,751 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
$952 交易量
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 交易量
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,630 交易量
12%
4.3-4.6%
$10,019 交易量
49%
4.6-4.9%
$7,996 交易量
37%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 交易量
2%
5.2-5.5%
$899 交易量
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$26,751結束日期
2026-10-20市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$26,751結束日期
2026-10-20市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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