Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於200-219 17%
180-199 15%
220-239 15%
240-259 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
4%
100-119
1%
120-139
2%
140-159
11%
160-179
12%
180-199
15%
200-219
17%
220-239
15%
240-259
14%
260-279
9%
280-299
6%
300-319
3%
320-339
3%
340-359
2%
360-379
11%
380-399
12%
400-419
11%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 17%
180-199 15%
220-239 15%
240-259 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
<20
$233 交易量
<1%
20-39
$188 交易量
<1%
40-59
$172 交易量
<1%
60-79
$72 交易量
<1%
80-99
$72 交易量
4%
100-119
$42 交易量
1%
120-139
$62 交易量
2%
140-159
$197 交易量
11%
160-179
$144 交易量
12%
180-199
$62 交易量
15%
200-219
$68 交易量
17%
220-239
$77 交易量
15%
240-259
$62 交易量
14%
260-279
$57 交易量
9%
280-299
$62 交易量
6%
300-319
$82 交易量
3%
320-339
$262 交易量
3%
340-359
$62 交易量
2%
360-379
$10 交易量
11%
380-399
$10 交易量
12%
400-419
$10 交易量
11%
420-439
$98 交易量
<1%
440-459
$72 交易量
<1%
460-479
$72 交易量
<1%
480-499
$172 交易量
<1%
500+
$256 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
交易量
$2,677結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$2,677結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions