Elon Musk’s established rhythm of 8–12 posts per day on X has anchored trader consensus around the 40–64 bracket, now carrying a 74% implied probability for the May 16–18 window. Recent three-day tracking periods show daily averages hovering in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with that range and leaving higher bands like 65–89 at just 22.5%. Absent major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral controversies in the past week, momentum remains steady; any sudden spike in engagement or breaking news could push totals upward, but historical precedent suggests the current market-implied odds reflect a reliable baseline for this stretch.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-64 75%
65-89 24%
90-114 1.1%
少於40 <1%
$708,686 交易量
$708,686 交易量
2026-05-18
少於40
1%
40-64
75%
65-89
24%
90-114
1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 75%
65-89 24%
90-114 1.1%
少於40 <1%
$708,686 交易量
$708,686 交易量
2026-05-18
少於40
$231,312 交易量
1%
40-64
$66,002 交易量
75%
65-89
$69,820 交易量
24%
90-114
$93,881 交易量
1%
115-139
$67,861 交易量
<1%
140-164
$61,110 交易量
<1%
165-189
$53,265 交易量
<1%
190-214
$37,343 交易量
<1%
215-239
$15,853 交易量
<1%
240+
$18,696 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established rhythm of 8–12 posts per day on X has anchored trader consensus around the 40–64 bracket, now carrying a 74% implied probability for the May 16–18 window. Recent three-day tracking periods show daily averages hovering in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with that range and leaving higher bands like 65–89 at just 22.5%. Absent major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral controversies in the past week, momentum remains steady; any sudden spike in engagement or breaking news could push totals upward, but historical precedent suggests the current market-implied odds reflect a reliable baseline for this stretch.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$708,686結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established rhythm of 8–12 posts per day on X has anchored trader consensus around the 40–64 bracket, now carrying a 74% implied probability for the May 16–18 window. Recent three-day tracking periods show daily averages hovering in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with that range and leaving higher bands like 65–89 at just 22.5%. Absent major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral controversies in the past week, momentum remains steady; any sudden spike in engagement or breaking news could push totals upward, but historical precedent suggests the current market-implied odds reflect a reliable baseline for this stretch.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$708,686結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established rhythm of 8–12 posts per day on X has anchored trader consensus around the 40–64 bracket, now carrying a 74% implied probability for the May 16–18 window. Recent three-day tracking periods show daily averages hovering in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with that range and leaving higher bands like 65–89 at just 22.5%. Absent major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral controversies in the past week, momentum remains steady; any sudden spike in engagement or breaking news could push totals upward, but historical precedent suggests the current market-implied odds reflect a reliable baseline for this stretch.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions