Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 100-119 times (49.4% implied probability) or 120-139 times (33.2%) from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, reflecting his steady mid-teens daily average of qualifying X posts—main feed originals, quotes, and reposts, excluding replies. With 43 such posts logged over the first five days amid lighter news cycles, the closely contested odds stem from recent measured output on Grok Voice topping benchmarks, SpaceX spaceport expansions, Tesla FSD accessibility stories, and viral cultural jabs at Hollywood DEI and ancient history revisions. Absent major catalysts like earnings or launches in the final 48 hours, traders anticipate sustained engagement without spikes, though weekend controversies could nudge toward higher bins before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於100-119 49.0%
120-139 30.9%
80-99 11.8%
140-159 7.6%
$7,369,429 交易量
$7,369,429 交易量
80-99
12%
100-119
49%
120-139
31%
140-159
8%
160-179
2%
180-199
1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
100-119 49.0%
120-139 30.9%
80-99 11.8%
140-159 7.6%
$7,369,429 交易量
$7,369,429 交易量
80-99
12%
100-119
49%
120-139
31%
140-159
8%
160-179
2%
180-199
1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 100-119 times (49.4% implied probability) or 120-139 times (33.2%) from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, reflecting his steady mid-teens daily average of qualifying X posts—main feed originals, quotes, and reposts, excluding replies. With 43 such posts logged over the first five days amid lighter news cycles, the closely contested odds stem from recent measured output on Grok Voice topping benchmarks, SpaceX spaceport expansions, Tesla FSD accessibility stories, and viral cultural jabs at Hollywood DEI and ancient history revisions. Absent major catalysts like earnings or launches in the final 48 hours, traders anticipate sustained engagement without spikes, though weekend controversies could nudge toward higher bins before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions