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icon for 哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？
地緣政治·區域溢出效應

哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？

icon for 哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？
地緣政治·區域溢出效應

哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？

$308,324 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$308,324 交易量

Polymarket

12月31日

$113,388 交易量

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa remains Bahrain’s head of state and continues to conduct high-level diplomacy, including public phone calls with regional leaders and meetings on security cooperation amid Gulf tensions. The crown prince and prime minister, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, handles day-to-day cabinet and government functions while the king maintains his constitutional role as supreme commander. No verified reports indicate health concerns, abdication plans, or domestic challenges to the Al Khalifa monarchy in the past several months. Succession follows agnatic primogeniture with the crown prince as designated heir, and recent state activities show routine royal engagements without signals of transition. Traders assessing near-term removal probabilities weigh this institutional continuity against any unforeseen regional or internal shocks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$308,324
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa remains Bahrain’s head of state and continues to conduct high-level diplomacy, including public phone calls with regional leaders and meetings on security cooperation amid Gulf tensions. The crown prince and prime minister, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, handles day-to-day cabinet and government functions while the king maintains his constitutional role as supreme commander. No verified reports indicate health concerns, abdication plans, or domestic challenges to the Al Khalifa monarchy in the past several months. Succession follows agnatic primogeniture with the crown prince as designated heir, and recent state activities show routine royal engagements without signals of transition. Traders assessing near-term removal probabilities weigh this institutional continuity against any unforeseen regional or internal shocks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$308,324
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 5%, followed by "6月30日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" has generated $308.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" is "12月31日" at just 5%, with "6月30日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.