**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.** Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月11日馬德裏氣溫最高？
7月11日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 50%
39°C 28%
37°C 16%
36°C 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-07-11
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
16%
38°C
50%
39°C
28%
40°C
3%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 50%
39°C 28%
37°C 16%
36°C 3.1%
最新
最新
2026-07-11
33°C or below
$345 交易量
<1%
34°C
$218 交易量
<1%
35°C
$291 交易量
1%
36°C
$499 交易量
3%
37°C
$2,354 交易量
16%
38°C
$1,047 交易量
50%
39°C
$1,981 交易量
28%
40°C
$430 交易量
3%
41°C
$204 交易量
<1%
42°C
$1,097 交易量
<1%
43°C or higher
$1,296 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.**
Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$9,762結束日期
2026-07-11市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.**
Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,762結束日期
2026-07-11市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.** Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions