**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.** This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average. Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月31日馬德裏氣溫最高？
7月31日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 52%
37°C 47%
39°C 4%
41°C <1%
最新
$16,292 交易量
最新
$16,292 交易量
2026-07-31
35°C或以下
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
47%
38°C
52%
39°C
4%
40°C
<1%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或更高
<1%
38°C 52%
37°C 47%
39°C 4%
41°C <1%
最新
$16,292 交易量
最新
$16,292 交易量
2026-07-31
35°C或以下
$752 交易量
<1%
36°C
$748 交易量
<1%
37°C
$4,090 交易量
47%
38°C
$3,863 交易量
52%
39°C
$1,821 交易量
4%
40°C
$1,209 交易量
<1%
41°C
$1,121 交易量
1%
42°C
$744 交易量
<1%
43°C
$828 交易量
<1%
44°C
$690 交易量
<1%
45°C或更高
$424 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.**
This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average.
Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
交易量
$16,292結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.**
This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average.
Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,292結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ET**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.** This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average. Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions