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icon for 到6月30日， ECDSA.fail將比Google的量子基準提前多遠？
科技·科學

到6月30日， ECDSA.fail將比Google的量子基準提前多遠？

icon for 到6月30日， ECDSA.fail將比Google的量子基準提前多遠？
科技·科學

到6月30日， ECDSA.fail將比Google的量子基準提前多遠？

最新
2026-06-30
Polymarket

$4,990 交易量

Polymarket

40% 以上

$4,385 交易量

100%

50%+

$605 交易量

23%

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Open community optimization on the ECDSA.fail leaderboard has already produced quantum circuits for secp256k1 elliptic-curve point addition in Shor’s algorithm that exceed Google’s March 2026 reference (approximately 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates, or a fixed product benchmark of 2.99 billion) by more than 40 percent. Progress is tracked via the qubit–Toffoli product metric, with public submissions rapidly closing the gap after Google’s 10-fold spacetime-volume improvement over prior estimates. With resolution on June 30, 2026, trader focus centers on whether additional open-agent refinements can push the lead to 50 percent before the deadline, absent any new Google resource-estimate publication. Current model consensus and historical optimization rates support sustained community momentum in this narrow window.

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.

If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.

Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
交易量
$4,990
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Open community optimization on the ECDSA.fail leaderboard has already produced quantum circuits for secp256k1 elliptic-curve point addition in Shor’s algorithm that exceed Google’s March 2026 reference (approximately 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates, or a fixed product benchmark of 2.99 billion) by more than 40 percent. Progress is tracked via the qubit–Toffoli product metric, with public submissions rapidly closing the gap after Google’s 10-fold spacetime-volume improvement over prior estimates. With resolution on June 30, 2026, trader focus centers on whether additional open-agent refinements can push the lead to 50 percent before the deadline, absent any new Google resource-estimate publication. Current model consensus and historical optimization rates support sustained community momentum in this narrow window.

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.

If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.

Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
交易量
$4,990
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

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"到6月30日， ECDSA.fail將比Google的量子基準提前多遠？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40% 以上" at 100%, followed by "50%+" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

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