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icon for 6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)

6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)

icon for 6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)

6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)

≤8 50%

10 12%

11 12%

9 9%

Polymarket

$90,305 交易量

≤8 50%

10 12%

11 12%

9 9%

Polymarket

$90,305 交易量

≤8

$25,437 交易量

53%

9

$17,548 交易量

20%

10

$8,380 交易量

12%

11

$28,064 交易量

12%

12

$4,396 交易量

7%

13

$2,763 交易量

3%

14+

$3,718 交易量

2%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide in 2026 through late April, with the most recent a 7.4 event near Japan on April 20; a subsequent lull through mid-May has kept the pace below the long-term global average of roughly 15–20 such events per year. USGS seismic catalogs show these quakes clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence drives the majority of large events, while recent monitoring reveals no elevated precursors or aftershock sequences that would signal accelerated activity. With only six weeks remaining until June 30, the distribution of future occurrences follows a Poisson process with inherent variability, supporting the market’s emphasis on totals of eight or nine while highlighting the potential for one or two additional events if standard rates resume.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$90,305
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide in 2026 through late April, with the most recent a 7.4 event near Japan on April 20; a subsequent lull through mid-May has kept the pace below the long-term global average of roughly 15–20 such events per year. USGS seismic catalogs show these quakes clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence drives the majority of large events, while recent monitoring reveals no elevated precursors or aftershock sequences that would signal accelerated activity. With only six weeks remaining until June 30, the distribution of future occurrences follows a Poisson process with inherent variability, supporting the market’s emphasis on totals of eight or nine while highlighting the potential for one or two additional events if standard rates resume.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$90,305
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≤8" at 53%, followed by "9" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)" has generated $90.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)" is "≤8" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.