Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide in 2026 through late April, with the most recent a 7.4 event near Japan on April 20; a subsequent lull through mid-May has kept the pace below the long-term global average of roughly 15–20 such events per year. USGS seismic catalogs show these quakes clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence drives the majority of large events, while recent monitoring reveals no elevated precursors or aftershock sequences that would signal accelerated activity. With only six weeks remaining until June 30, the distribution of future occurrences follows a Poisson process with inherent variability, supporting the market’s emphasis on totals of eight or nine while highlighting the potential for one or two additional events if standard rates resume.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震? (更高的打擊)
≤8 50%
10 12%
11 12%
9 9%
$90,305 交易量
$90,305 交易量
≤8
53%
9
20%
10
12%
11
12%
12
7%
13
3%
14+
2%
≤8 50%
10 12%
11 12%
9 9%
$90,305 交易量
$90,305 交易量
≤8
53%
9
20%
10
12%
11
12%
12
7%
13
3%
14+
2%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間: Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide in 2026 through late April, with the most recent a 7.4 event near Japan on April 20; a subsequent lull through mid-May has kept the pace below the long-term global average of roughly 15–20 such events per year. USGS seismic catalogs show these quakes clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence drives the majority of large events, while recent monitoring reveals no elevated precursors or aftershock sequences that would signal accelerated activity. With only six weeks remaining until June 30, the distribution of future occurrences follows a Poisson process with inherent variability, supporting the market’s emphasis on totals of eight or nine while highlighting the potential for one or two additional events if standard rates resume.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions