Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月10日至8月16日發生了多少次6.5級或以上的地震？
8月10日至8月16日發生了多少次6.5級或以上的地震？
1 61%
2 27%
3 9.2%
4 1.4%
$14,488 交易量
$14,488 交易量
2026-08-10
0
1%
1
61%
2
27%
3
9%
4
1%
5
1%
>5
1%
1 61%
2 27%
3 9.2%
4 1.4%
$14,488 交易量
$14,488 交易量
2026-08-10
0
$7,720 交易量
1%
1
$1,956 交易量
61%
2
$752 交易量
27%
3
$641 交易量
9%
4
$574 交易量
1%
5
$656 交易量
1%
>5
$2,190 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
交易量
$14,488結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$14,488結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETRecent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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