Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.6%
$26,957,631 交易量
$26,957,631 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
70%
1（25個基點）
16%
2（50個基點）
7%
3次（75個基點）
3%
4（100 個基點）
1%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
<1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
1%
0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.6%
$26,957,631 交易量
$26,957,631 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$4,189,309 交易量
70%
1（25個基點）
$1,245,194 交易量
16%
2（50個基點）
$1,204,668 交易量
7%
3次（75個基點）
$1,114,221 交易量
3%
4（100 個基點）
$1,197,618 交易量
1%
5次（125個基點）
$1,419,215 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,496,286 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,326,491 交易量
<1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,736,514 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,457,047 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$3,125,883 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,276,965 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,168,370 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,957,631結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,957,631結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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