Recent primary results show three Republican House incumbents defeated so far in 2026, including Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas, pushing total House incumbent primary losses above the postwar average of roughly 6.5 per cycle. Trader consensus around 4-6 Republican defeats reflects this elevated but contained pace amid ongoing contests in the coming weeks, combined with unusually high voluntary retirements that reduce the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Factors sustaining the frontrunner include limited factional challenges within the GOP and strong performance by most sitting members in their districts. Additional losses in late-summer primaries or unexpected upsets could push totals higher, while early finishes without further defeats might anchor outcomes nearer the lower end of the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4-6 92.9%
7-9 4.9%
10-12 3.5%
>15 2.5%
$76,080 交易量
$76,080 交易量
≤3
<1%
4-6
93%
7-9
5%
10-12
3%
13-15
2%
>15
2%
4-6 92.9%
7-9 4.9%
10-12 3.5%
>15 2.5%
$76,080 交易量
$76,080 交易量
≤3
$38,821 交易量
<1%
4-6
$19,264 交易量
93%
7-9
$6,315 交易量
5%
10-12
$5,051 交易量
3%
13-15
$3,933 交易量
2%
>15
$2,696 交易量
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results show three Republican House incumbents defeated so far in 2026, including Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas, pushing total House incumbent primary losses above the postwar average of roughly 6.5 per cycle. Trader consensus around 4-6 Republican defeats reflects this elevated but contained pace amid ongoing contests in the coming weeks, combined with unusually high voluntary retirements that reduce the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Factors sustaining the frontrunner include limited factional challenges within the GOP and strong performance by most sitting members in their districts. Additional losses in late-summer primaries or unexpected upsets could push totals higher, while early finishes without further defeats might anchor outcomes nearer the lower end of the range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$76,080市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results show three Republican House incumbents defeated so far in 2026, including Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas, pushing total House incumbent primary losses above the postwar average of roughly 6.5 per cycle. Trader consensus around 4-6 Republican defeats reflects this elevated but contained pace amid ongoing contests in the coming weeks, combined with unusually high voluntary retirements that reduce the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Factors sustaining the frontrunner include limited factional challenges within the GOP and strong performance by most sitting members in their districts. Additional losses in late-summer primaries or unexpected upsets could push totals higher, while early finishes without further defeats might anchor outcomes nearer the lower end of the range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$76,080市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent primary results show three Republican House incumbents defeated so far in 2026, including Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas, pushing total House incumbent primary losses above the postwar average of roughly 6.5 per cycle. Trader consensus around 4-6 Republican defeats reflects this elevated but contained pace amid ongoing contests in the coming weeks, combined with unusually high voluntary retirements that reduce the pool of vulnerable incumbents. Factors sustaining the frontrunner include limited factional challenges within the GOP and strong performance by most sitting members in their districts. Additional losses in late-summer primaries or unexpected upsets could push totals higher, while early finishes without further defeats might anchor outcomes nearer the lower end of the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions