Heightened tensions following the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risk. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening afterward but remaining subject to short-notice disruptions from potential Iranian or proxy actions, including Hezbollah. EASA has issued cautionary notes for operators, while recent incidents such as a June 2026 Houthi missile interception prompted brief suspensions. Traders monitor Iranian statements, diplomatic signals, and cross-border events that could trigger broader civilian flight halts before late-August resolution windows, though the airspace stays open as of mid-August.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$27,127,059 交易量
2026-08-15
8月31日
3%
$27,127,059 交易量
8月31日
$1,095,178 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened tensions following the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risk. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening afterward but remaining subject to short-notice disruptions from potential Iranian or proxy actions, including Hezbollah. EASA has issued cautionary notes for operators, while recent incidents such as a June 2026 Houthi missile interception prompted brief suspensions. Traders monitor Iranian statements, diplomatic signals, and cross-border events that could trigger broader civilian flight halts before late-August resolution windows, though the airspace stays open as of mid-August.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
交易量
$27,127,059結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened tensions following the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risk. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening afterward but remaining subject to short-notice disruptions from potential Iranian or proxy actions, including Hezbollah. EASA has issued cautionary notes for operators, while recent incidents such as a June 2026 Houthi missile interception prompted brief suspensions. Traders monitor Iranian statements, diplomatic signals, and cross-border events that could trigger broader civilian flight halts before late-August resolution windows, though the airspace stays open as of mid-August.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$27,127,059結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Heightened tensions following the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risk. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening afterward but remaining subject to short-notice disruptions from potential Iranian or proxy actions, including Hezbollah. EASA has issued cautionary notes for operators, while recent incidents such as a June 2026 Houthi missile interception prompted brief suspensions. Traders monitor Iranian statements, diplomatic signals, and cross-border events that could trigger broader civilian flight halts before late-August resolution windows, though the airspace stays open as of mid-August.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
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