**Traders assign an 81% probability to “No” because RZP has already run independent primaries, finalized its Knesset slate in late July, and scheduled submission to the Central Elections Committee by early September, while Likud completed its own separate primary on 17 August and released a national list without reserved slots or technical merger provisions for Smotrich’s party.** Recent polling showing RZP hovering at or below the 3.25% threshold, alongside the entry of Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party drawing from the same religious-Zionist electorate, has prompted Netanyahu to press Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for an Otzma–RZP union rather than a Likud–RZP arrangement. Ben-Gvir rejected any joint list, and neither Likud nor RZP has announced talks, candidate placements, or agreements that would produce a combined ticket. With the October 27 election date fixed and party lists due shortly, the absence of any procedural steps toward a Likud–RZP merger has reinforced the market’s assessment that the two parties will compete separately.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
29% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
是
29% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign an 81% probability to “No” because RZP has already run independent primaries, finalized its Knesset slate in late July, and scheduled submission to the Central Elections Committee by early September, while Likud completed its own separate primary on 17 August and released a national list without reserved slots or technical merger provisions for Smotrich’s party.**
Recent polling showing RZP hovering at or below the 3.25% threshold, alongside the entry of Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party drawing from the same religious-Zionist electorate, has prompted Netanyahu to press Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for an Otzma–RZP union rather than a Likud–RZP arrangement. Ben-Gvir rejected any joint list, and neither Likud nor RZP has announced talks, candidate placements, or agreements that would produce a combined ticket.
With the October 27 election date fixed and party lists due shortly, the absence of any procedural steps toward a Likud–RZP merger has reinforced the market’s assessment that the two parties will compete separately.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$492結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETElections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign an 81% probability to “No” because RZP has already run independent primaries, finalized its Knesset slate in late July, and scheduled submission to the Central Elections Committee by early September, while Likud completed its own separate primary on 17 August and released a national list without reserved slots or technical merger provisions for Smotrich’s party.**
Recent polling showing RZP hovering at or below the 3.25% threshold, alongside the entry of Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party drawing from the same religious-Zionist electorate, has prompted Netanyahu to press Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for an Otzma–RZP union rather than a Likud–RZP arrangement. Ben-Gvir rejected any joint list, and neither Likud nor RZP has announced talks, candidate placements, or agreements that would produce a combined ticket.
With the October 27 election date fixed and party lists due shortly, the absence of any procedural steps toward a Likud–RZP merger has reinforced the market’s assessment that the two parties will compete separately.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
交易量
$492結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET**Traders assign an 81% probability to “No” because RZP has already run independent primaries, finalized its Knesset slate in late July, and scheduled submission to the Central Elections Committee by early September, while Likud completed its own separate primary on 17 August and released a national list without reserved slots or technical merger provisions for Smotrich’s party.** Recent polling showing RZP hovering at or below the 3.25% threshold, alongside the entry of Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party drawing from the same religious-Zionist electorate, has prompted Netanyahu to press Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for an Otzma–RZP union rather than a Likud–RZP arrangement. Ben-Gvir rejected any joint list, and neither Likud nor RZP has announced talks, candidate placements, or agreements that would produce a combined ticket. With the October 27 election date fixed and party lists due shortly, the absence of any procedural steps toward a Likud–RZP merger has reinforced the market’s assessment that the two parties will compete separately.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions