Recent federal charges against former FBI Director James Comey for alleged threats tied to a 2025 social media post have prompted an indictment and scheduled arraignment on June 30, yet pre-trial detention remains unlikely given standard release practices and the non-violent nature of the counts. Traders assign 96 percent probability to no imprisonment by that date because the case is in early stages, with a trial not set until mid-July and no prior history of incarceration for the individual. Factors supporting this consensus include Comey’s voluntary surrender, retained counsel, and the time required for motions, hearings, and any potential bail review. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unanticipated judicial detention order at arraignment or rapid escalation of proceedings, though both face significant procedural barriers in federal court.