U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification rather than underground detonations. Trader sentiment reflects this continuity, as statements from the Trump administration in late 2025 directing review of testing on an “equal basis” with Russia and China have not produced confirmed plans, funding shifts, or readiness timelines for yield-producing tests at the Nevada site. Concerns over potential low-yield activity by competitors and the expiration of New START have prompted policy discussion, yet congressional oversight, technical preparation requirements, and diplomatic considerations continue to constrain near-term resumption. No scheduled events or legislative actions in the coming months appear positioned to alter that baseline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$768,750 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,750 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,749 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification rather than underground detonations. Trader sentiment reflects this continuity, as statements from the Trump administration in late 2025 directing review of testing on an “equal basis” with Russia and China have not produced confirmed plans, funding shifts, or readiness timelines for yield-producing tests at the Nevada site. Concerns over potential low-yield activity by competitors and the expiration of New START have prompted policy discussion, yet congressional oversight, technical preparation requirements, and diplomatic considerations continue to constrain near-term resumption. No scheduled events or legislative actions in the coming months appear positioned to alter that baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$768,750結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification rather than underground detonations. Trader sentiment reflects this continuity, as statements from the Trump administration in late 2025 directing review of testing on an “equal basis” with Russia and China have not produced confirmed plans, funding shifts, or readiness timelines for yield-producing tests at the Nevada site. Concerns over potential low-yield activity by competitors and the expiration of New START have prompted policy discussion, yet congressional oversight, technical preparation requirements, and diplomatic considerations continue to constrain near-term resumption. No scheduled events or legislative actions in the coming months appear positioned to alter that baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$768,750結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification rather than underground detonations. Trader sentiment reflects this continuity, as statements from the Trump administration in late 2025 directing review of testing on an “equal basis” with Russia and China have not produced confirmed plans, funding shifts, or readiness timelines for yield-producing tests at the Nevada site. Concerns over potential low-yield activity by competitors and the expiration of New START have prompted policy discussion, yet congressional oversight, technical preparation requirements, and diplomatic considerations continue to constrain near-term resumption. No scheduled events or legislative actions in the coming months appear positioned to alter that baseline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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