María Corina Machado remains in exile after departing Venezuela covertly in late 2025, with multiple announced return attempts blocked by government airspace restrictions, airline refusals, and opposition from interim authorities. Failed efforts around the time of major earthquakes in mid-2026, coupled with U.S. statements describing immediate returns as counterproductive, have reinforced barriers to entry. Her stated timeline targets a return before the end of 2026 alongside plans to contest the presidency, amid ongoing negotiations over democratic transition and elections. Trader probabilities reflect these logistical, diplomatic, and security constraints, with scheduled political milestones and any shifts in bilateral relations or domestic conditions likely to influence near-term resolution.