Strong trader consensus on a 99.8% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive overhaul despite temporary waivers. The Trump administration's 60-day waiver, extended by 90 days in late April to ease oil, natural gas, and fertilizer flows amid Middle East supply disruptions, remains narrowly scoped and expires without altering the core U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed mandates. Maritime unions, shipbuilders, and operators have mounted coordinated opposition, citing national security and domestic employment impacts, while no congressional bills have advanced beyond preliminary discussion. With resolution less than six weeks away, only an unprecedented supply crisis could plausibly trigger a last-minute policy shift capable of overriding these entrenched barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$52,403 交易量
$52,403 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$52,403 交易量
$52,403 交易量
2026-06-30
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong trader consensus on a 99.8% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive overhaul despite temporary waivers. The Trump administration's 60-day waiver, extended by 90 days in late April to ease oil, natural gas, and fertilizer flows amid Middle East supply disruptions, remains narrowly scoped and expires without altering the core U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed mandates. Maritime unions, shipbuilders, and operators have mounted coordinated opposition, citing national security and domestic employment impacts, while no congressional bills have advanced beyond preliminary discussion. With resolution less than six weeks away, only an unprecedented supply crisis could plausibly trigger a last-minute policy shift capable of overriding these entrenched barriers.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$52,403結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong trader consensus on a 99.8% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive overhaul despite temporary waivers. The Trump administration's 60-day waiver, extended by 90 days in late April to ease oil, natural gas, and fertilizer flows amid Middle East supply disruptions, remains narrowly scoped and expires without altering the core U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed mandates. Maritime unions, shipbuilders, and operators have mounted coordinated opposition, citing national security and domestic employment impacts, while no congressional bills have advanced beyond preliminary discussion. With resolution less than six weeks away, only an unprecedented supply crisis could plausibly trigger a last-minute policy shift capable of overriding these entrenched barriers.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$52,403結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus on a 99.8% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive overhaul despite temporary waivers. The Trump administration's 60-day waiver, extended by 90 days in late April to ease oil, natural gas, and fertilizer flows amid Middle East supply disruptions, remains narrowly scoped and expires without altering the core U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed mandates. Maritime unions, shipbuilders, and operators have mounted coordinated opposition, citing national security and domestic employment impacts, while no congressional bills have advanced beyond preliminary discussion. With resolution less than six weeks away, only an unprecedented supply crisis could plausibly trigger a last-minute policy shift capable of overriding these entrenched barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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