Traders assign the highest probability to fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the August 21-28, 2026 window, reflecting his established pattern of limited direct social media activity in favor of institutional channels and occasional statements. This consensus aligns with historical posting rates on his official accounts, which prioritize measured, infrequent interventions over daily commentary. No major verified developments in the past 30 days have altered expectations around his schedule, health status, or public communication needs. Upcoming regional diplomacy, domestic policy timelines, or religious observances could still prompt additional statements, though markets price such shifts as lower-probability events. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing underscores uncertainty around exact volume while favoring restraint.