**The accounts tied to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died in February 2026, now operate under archival management and issue only sporadic historical or religious statements rather than new leadership messaging.** This low-volume pattern has held steady since the transition to his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. In the comparable August 11–18 window, the primary @khamenei_ir account recorded just two posts by mid-August, consisting of dated quotes. No scheduled events, official announcements, or diplomatic developments in mid-August 2026 have altered this routine. Traders therefore assign the highest probability (71%) to fewer than five posts for August 14–21, with the 5–9 bucket at 23.5% reflecting the possibility of one or two additional archival items. Higher ranges remain negligible because the accounts show no signs of increased activity.