The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
440-460萬平方公里 98.2%
少於400萬平方公里 <1%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 <1%
400萬至420萬平方公里 <1%
$89,029 交易量
$89,029 交易量
2026-09-30
少於400萬平方公里
1%
400萬至420萬平方公里
1%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
1%
440-460萬平方公里
98%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
<1%
480-500萬平方公里
<1%
500萬平方公里以上
<1%
440-460萬平方公里 98.2%
少於400萬平方公里 <1%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 <1%
400萬至420萬平方公里 <1%
$89,029 交易量
$89,029 交易量
2026-09-30
少於400萬平方公里
$37,140 交易量
1%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$9,208 交易量
1%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$4,566 交易量
1%
440-460萬平方公里
$5,810 交易量
98%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$11,086 交易量
<1%
480-500萬平方公里
$5,074 交易量
<1%
500萬平方公里以上
$16,145 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$89,029結束日期
2026-10-02市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$89,029結束日期
2026-10-02市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETThe dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions