**Robust consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026.** The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a median 2.3% real GDP increase (Q4/Q4), with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and the full range 2.1–2.6%; private estimates cluster similarly near 2.0–2.3%. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, Q1 at 2.1%, and the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast points to a solid 5.1% gain. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains have offset higher policy rates and energy-price pressures, keeping growth near potential and well above contraction thresholds. While a severe geopolitical shock, sharp financial dislocation, or abrupt policy error could still trigger a deep enough downturn to produce negative annual growth, current economic momentum and forecaster distributions make such outcomes low-probability tail events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$33,280 交易量
$33,280 交易量
2027-01-28
是
2% 機率
$33,280 交易量
$33,280 交易量
2027-01-28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.**Robust consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026.** The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a median 2.3% real GDP increase (Q4/Q4), with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and the full range 2.1–2.6%; private estimates cluster similarly near 2.0–2.3%. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, Q1 at 2.1%, and the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast points to a solid 5.1% gain. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains have offset higher policy rates and energy-price pressures, keeping growth near potential and well above contraction thresholds. While a severe geopolitical shock, sharp financial dislocation, or abrupt policy error could still trigger a deep enough downturn to produce negative annual growth, current economic momentum and forecaster distributions make such outcomes low-probability tail events.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$33,280結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.**Robust consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026.** The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a median 2.3% real GDP increase (Q4/Q4), with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and the full range 2.1–2.6%; private estimates cluster similarly near 2.0–2.3%. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, Q1 at 2.1%, and the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast points to a solid 5.1% gain. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains have offset higher policy rates and energy-price pressures, keeping growth near potential and well above contraction thresholds. While a severe geopolitical shock, sharp financial dislocation, or abrupt policy error could still trigger a deep enough downturn to produce negative annual growth, current economic momentum and forecaster distributions make such outcomes low-probability tail events.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$33,280結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET**Robust consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026.** The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a median 2.3% real GDP increase (Q4/Q4), with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and the full range 2.1–2.6%; private estimates cluster similarly near 2.0–2.3%. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, Q1 at 2.1%, and the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast points to a solid 5.1% gain. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains have offset higher policy rates and energy-price pressures, keeping growth near potential and well above contraction thresholds. While a severe geopolitical shock, sharp financial dislocation, or abrupt policy error could still trigger a deep enough downturn to produce negative annual growth, current economic momentum and forecaster distributions make such outcomes low-probability tail events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions