**Transatlantic divisions within the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board have left the permanent High Representative post unfilled since Christian Schmidt’s July 2026 resignation, driving the elevated 68% probability on no appointment occurring in 2026.** The PIC reached consensus only on appointing U.S. diplomat Louis J. Crishock as acting High Representative effective July 1, after missing the July 14 target for a successor. U.S. backing for Italian diplomat Antonio Zanardi Landi clashes with European preferences for French envoy René Troccaz, with compromise names such as Maurizio Massari and Peter Sørensen floated but unresolved amid broader debates over the Office’s mandate, Bonn powers, and long-term role. Earlier U.S. consideration of William Ruger and reported strains over state property and energy projects have further complicated consensus. Traders price individual candidates low because the deadlock persists into September with no breakthrough, while institutional uncertainty—linked to U.S. signals about reconsidering its involvement and upcoming EUFOR renewal—supports the leading “no HR” outcome.