Recent cabinet instability under Keir Starmer, including the September 2025 reshuffle that moved David Lammy to Deputy Prime Minister and installed Yvette Cooper as Foreign Secretary, followed by further May-June 2026 adjustments amid resignations and a Labour leadership crisis, has left trader sentiment evenly split across numerous senior Labour figures. With no dominant frontrunner emerging and "no change in 2026" also priced near 45 percent, the market reflects uncertainty over whether additional reshuffles will occur before year-end, the broad bench of eligible cabinet ministers and MPs, and procedural factors like prime ministerial discretion in appointments. Scheduled parliamentary sessions and any further ministerial departures could quickly shift implied probabilities among the listed contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026 年沒有下一任外交大臣 23%
韋斯·史崔汀 22%
莉莎·南迪 15%
約翰·希利 10%

2026 年沒有下一任外交大臣
30%

韋斯·史崔汀
22%

莉莎·南迪
15%

約翰·希利
10%

帕特·麥克法登
7%

大衛·拉米
4%

沙巴娜·馬哈茂德
3%

希拉蕊·班恩
3%

雷切爾·里夫斯
3%

達倫·瓊斯
2%
2026 年沒有下一任外交大臣 23%
韋斯·史崔汀 22%
莉莎·南迪 15%
約翰·希利 10%

2026 年沒有下一任外交大臣
30%

韋斯·史崔汀
22%

莉莎·南迪
15%

約翰·希利
10%

帕特·麥克法登
7%

大衛·拉米
4%

沙巴娜·馬哈茂德
3%

希拉蕊·班恩
3%

雷切爾·里夫斯
3%

達倫·瓊斯
2%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Foreign Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Foreign Secretary is appointed, or Yvette Cooper is re-appointed as Foreign Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Foreign Secretary in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Foreign Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Foreign Secretary is appointed, or Yvette Cooper is re-appointed as Foreign Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Foreign Secretary in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet instability under Keir Starmer, including the September 2025 reshuffle that moved David Lammy to Deputy Prime Minister and installed Yvette Cooper as Foreign Secretary, followed by further May-June 2026 adjustments amid resignations and a Labour leadership crisis, has left trader sentiment evenly split across numerous senior Labour figures. With no dominant frontrunner emerging and "no change in 2026" also priced near 45 percent, the market reflects uncertainty over whether additional reshuffles will occur before year-end, the broad bench of eligible cabinet ministers and MPs, and procedural factors like prime ministerial discretion in appointments. Scheduled parliamentary sessions and any further ministerial departures could quickly shift implied probabilities among the listed contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions