Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson seeks a tenth term in Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters and carrying an R+19 Partisan Voter Index. Thompson secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a district where Donald Trump prevailed by more than 21 points. Democrat Ray Bilger, a political newcomer with minimal fundraising, advanced unopposed in the May primary but faces structural headwinds typical of the north-central Pennsylvania region. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals, including the absence of competitive polling or primary challenges. A late national Democratic surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though no such developments have materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$25,575 交易量
$25,575 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
95%
民主黨
6%
$25,575 交易量
$25,575 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$9,179 交易量
95%
民主黨
$16,397 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson seeks a tenth term in Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters and carrying an R+19 Partisan Voter Index. Thompson secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a district where Donald Trump prevailed by more than 21 points. Democrat Ray Bilger, a political newcomer with minimal fundraising, advanced unopposed in the May primary but faces structural headwinds typical of the north-central Pennsylvania region. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals, including the absence of competitive polling or primary challenges. A late national Democratic surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though no such developments have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$25,575結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson seeks a tenth term in Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters and carrying an R+19 Partisan Voter Index. Thompson secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a district where Donald Trump prevailed by more than 21 points. Democrat Ray Bilger, a political newcomer with minimal fundraising, advanced unopposed in the May primary but faces structural headwinds typical of the north-central Pennsylvania region. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals, including the absence of competitive polling or primary challenges. A late national Democratic surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though no such developments have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$25,575結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETIncumbent Republican Glenn Thompson seeks a tenth term in Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters and carrying an R+19 Partisan Voter Index. Thompson secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a district where Donald Trump prevailed by more than 21 points. Democrat Ray Bilger, a political newcomer with minimal fundraising, advanced unopposed in the May primary but faces structural headwinds typical of the north-central Pennsylvania region. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals, including the absence of competitive polling or primary challenges. A late national Democratic surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election, though no such developments have materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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