Skip to main content
icon for 山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？
科技·OpenAI

山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？

icon for 山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？
科技·OpenAI

山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？

$42,871 交易量

2025-12-31
Polymarket

$42,871 交易量

Polymarket

2026 年 6 月 30 日

$16,525 交易量

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman faces negligible market-implied odds of serving jail time by mid-2026, driven primarily by the complete absence of any criminal indictments or charges against him personally. Ongoing civil litigation, including a withdrawn family lawsuit and disputes with Elon Musk over OpenAI's nonprofit origins, remains confined to contract and governance claims unlikely to trigger incarceration under U.S. law. A recent April 2026 arson attack on Altman's San Francisco home by an anti-AI suspect instead prompted heightened security without implicating the OpenAI CEO. Traders weigh these factors against typical tech executive cases where regulatory probes into AI development and data practices rarely escalate to personal criminal liability absent clear evidence of fraud. Key upcoming catalysts include potential jury verdicts in related civil trials and any new federal AI oversight actions that could indirectly influence scrutiny.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$42,871
結束日期
2025-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman faces negligible market-implied odds of serving jail time by mid-2026, driven primarily by the complete absence of any criminal indictments or charges against him personally. Ongoing civil litigation, including a withdrawn family lawsuit and disputes with Elon Musk over OpenAI's nonprofit origins, remains confined to contract and governance claims unlikely to trigger incarceration under U.S. law. A recent April 2026 arson attack on Altman's San Francisco home by an anti-AI suspect instead prompted heightened security without implicating the OpenAI CEO. Traders weigh these factors against typical tech executive cases where regulatory probes into AI development and data practices rarely escalate to personal criminal liability absent clear evidence of fraud. Key upcoming catalysts include potential jury verdicts in related civil trials and any new federal AI oversight actions that could indirectly influence scrutiny.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$42,871
結束日期
2025-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026 年 6 月 30 日" at 5%, followed by "2025年12月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" has generated $42.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" is "2026 年 6 月 30 日" at just 5%, with "2025年12月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "山姆奧特曼在監獄裡被... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.