PSOE leads the Girona winner market at 74% as recent local polling and seat projections position the Socialists ahead in the constituency ahead of the November 29 election. ElectoralLab estimates updated November 7 project PSOE securing two of Girona’s six seats on 23.2% support, ahead of ERC on 22.6% for two seats and Junts on 21.7% for one, with Vox at 12.2% for one. A CEO barometer from mid-October showed PSOE topping direct voting intention in the province, consistent with Poliwave models assigning it over 90% probability of leading the district. National surveys favor PP overall, yet Girona’s distinct dynamics—stronger socialist and pro-independence support—keep ERC and Junts in contention for second place while holding PP and Vox below 1%. The campaign’s final weeks and turnout among Catalan voters remain the main variables that could shift the ordering.