**Ongoing regional security tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah, continue to shape trader assessments of any potential full U.S. Embassy evacuation in Beirut.** In February 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the mission due to risks from armed conflict, terrorism, and civil unrest, while keeping core staff in place and maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. The embassy has remained operational since, issuing routine security alerts—including one on September 19, 2026—highlighting potential flight disruptions, airspace issues, and threats to U.S. interests without announcing a full drawdown. A U.S.-brokered framework agreed in June 2026 between Israel and Lebanon has produced a fragile pause in hostilities, though implementation has stalled amid disputes over Israeli withdrawals, Hezbollah disarmament, and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south. Diplomatic talks continue, including recent envoy meetings, while UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its December 2026 end. These factors keep the market focused on whether escalating events or new official actions would trigger a complete embassy evacuation within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$119,473 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
6%
$119,473 交易量
12月31日
$25,371 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Ongoing regional security tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah, continue to shape trader assessments of any potential full U.S. Embassy evacuation in Beirut.**
In February 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the mission due to risks from armed conflict, terrorism, and civil unrest, while keeping core staff in place and maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. The embassy has remained operational since, issuing routine security alerts—including one on September 19, 2026—highlighting potential flight disruptions, airspace issues, and threats to U.S. interests without announcing a full drawdown.
A U.S.-brokered framework agreed in June 2026 between Israel and Lebanon has produced a fragile pause in hostilities, though implementation has stalled amid disputes over Israeli withdrawals, Hezbollah disarmament, and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south. Diplomatic talks continue, including recent envoy meetings, while UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its December 2026 end.
These factors keep the market focused on whether escalating events or new official actions would trigger a complete embassy evacuation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$119,473結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Ongoing regional security tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah, continue to shape trader assessments of any potential full U.S. Embassy evacuation in Beirut.**
In February 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the mission due to risks from armed conflict, terrorism, and civil unrest, while keeping core staff in place and maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. The embassy has remained operational since, issuing routine security alerts—including one on September 19, 2026—highlighting potential flight disruptions, airspace issues, and threats to U.S. interests without announcing a full drawdown.
A U.S.-brokered framework agreed in June 2026 between Israel and Lebanon has produced a fragile pause in hostilities, though implementation has stalled amid disputes over Israeli withdrawals, Hezbollah disarmament, and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south. Diplomatic talks continue, including recent envoy meetings, while UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its December 2026 end.
These factors keep the market focused on whether escalating events or new official actions would trigger a complete embassy evacuation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$119,473結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET**Ongoing regional security tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah, continue to shape trader assessments of any potential full U.S. Embassy evacuation in Beirut.** In February 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the mission due to risks from armed conflict, terrorism, and civil unrest, while keeping core staff in place and maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. The embassy has remained operational since, issuing routine security alerts—including one on September 19, 2026—highlighting potential flight disruptions, airspace issues, and threats to U.S. interests without announcing a full drawdown. A U.S.-brokered framework agreed in June 2026 between Israel and Lebanon has produced a fragile pause in hostilities, though implementation has stalled amid disputes over Israeli withdrawals, Hezbollah disarmament, and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south. Diplomatic talks continue, including recent envoy meetings, while UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its December 2026 end. These factors keep the market focused on whether escalating events or new official actions would trigger a complete embassy evacuation within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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