The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining limited readiness through stockpile stewardship programs managed by the NNSA. President Trump's October 2025 statements calling for resumed testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24-36 months of preparation and significant new funding, while political and diplomatic constraints, including CTBT commitments and alliance concerns, remain in place. As of mid-2026, no policy shift authorizing explosive tests has materialized, and congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and readiness over test resumption. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$794,139 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$794,139 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,403 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$75,925 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining limited readiness through stockpile stewardship programs managed by the NNSA. President Trump's October 2025 statements calling for resumed testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24-36 months of preparation and significant new funding, while political and diplomatic constraints, including CTBT commitments and alliance concerns, remain in place. As of mid-2026, no policy shift authorizing explosive tests has materialized, and congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and readiness over test resumption. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$794,139結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining limited readiness through stockpile stewardship programs managed by the NNSA. President Trump's October 2025 statements calling for resumed testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24-36 months of preparation and significant new funding, while political and diplomatic constraints, including CTBT commitments and alliance concerns, remain in place. As of mid-2026, no policy shift authorizing explosive tests has materialized, and congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and readiness over test resumption. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$794,139結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining limited readiness through stockpile stewardship programs managed by the NNSA. President Trump's October 2025 statements calling for resumed testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24-36 months of preparation and significant new funding, while political and diplomatic constraints, including CTBT commitments and alliance concerns, remain in place. As of mid-2026, no policy shift authorizing explosive tests has materialized, and congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and readiness over test resumption. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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