Recent U.S.-Cuba tensions have intensified through heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration, including statements positioning Cuba as a potential follow-on priority after operations involving Iran, alongside expanded intelligence-gathering flights and new sanctions targeting Cuban officials in energy, defense, and security sectors. U.S. officials have clarified that no imminent military action is planned, with Senate Republicans emphasizing resource constraints from other commitments and multiple congressional resolutions introduced to require explicit authorization for any use of force. Cuba has responded with defense preparations and calls for unconditional dialogue while bilateral talks remain stalled over economic and governance issues. These developments have shaped trader consensus toward a modest probability against a direct military clash materializing in 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic channels and competing national security priorities over escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$109,439 交易量
$109,439 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$109,439 交易量
$109,439 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Cuba tensions have intensified through heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration, including statements positioning Cuba as a potential follow-on priority after operations involving Iran, alongside expanded intelligence-gathering flights and new sanctions targeting Cuban officials in energy, defense, and security sectors. U.S. officials have clarified that no imminent military action is planned, with Senate Republicans emphasizing resource constraints from other commitments and multiple congressional resolutions introduced to require explicit authorization for any use of force. Cuba has responded with defense preparations and calls for unconditional dialogue while bilateral talks remain stalled over economic and governance issues. These developments have shaped trader consensus toward a modest probability against a direct military clash materializing in 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic channels and competing national security priorities over escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$109,439結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Cuba tensions have intensified through heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration, including statements positioning Cuba as a potential follow-on priority after operations involving Iran, alongside expanded intelligence-gathering flights and new sanctions targeting Cuban officials in energy, defense, and security sectors. U.S. officials have clarified that no imminent military action is planned, with Senate Republicans emphasizing resource constraints from other commitments and multiple congressional resolutions introduced to require explicit authorization for any use of force. Cuba has responded with defense preparations and calls for unconditional dialogue while bilateral talks remain stalled over economic and governance issues. These developments have shaped trader consensus toward a modest probability against a direct military clash materializing in 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic channels and competing national security priorities over escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$109,439結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Cuba tensions have intensified through heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration, including statements positioning Cuba as a potential follow-on priority after operations involving Iran, alongside expanded intelligence-gathering flights and new sanctions targeting Cuban officials in energy, defense, and security sectors. U.S. officials have clarified that no imminent military action is planned, with Senate Republicans emphasizing resource constraints from other commitments and multiple congressional resolutions introduced to require explicit authorization for any use of force. Cuba has responded with defense preparations and calls for unconditional dialogue while bilateral talks remain stalled over economic and governance issues. These developments have shaped trader consensus toward a modest probability against a direct military clash materializing in 2026, reflecting ongoing diplomatic channels and competing national security priorities over escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions