Anthropic’s leading 71 percent implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Sonnet models posting the strongest recent results on independent benchmarks such as Arena Elo ratings and real-world coding evaluations through mid-May 2026. Traders see these large language models delivering superior agentic performance, lower error rates on complex tasks, and higher user preference compared with rivals. Google’s 21 percent share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s competitive multimodal and reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 6.5 percent accounts for solid but less dominant GPT-5 family updates. With resolution set for the end of June, any new frontier model releases or updated third-party leaderboards in the coming weeks could still shift trader consensus on which company holds the top AI capabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 71.7%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI <1%
$6,013,834 交易量
$6,013,834 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
72%
21%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
微軟
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 71.7%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI <1%
$6,013,834 交易量
$6,013,834 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$846,157 交易量
72%
$549,750 交易量
21%
OpenAI
$343,765 交易量
7%
xAI
$1,067,771 交易量
1%
Meta
$137,001 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$504,511 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$163,559 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$303,598 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$483,628 交易量
<1%
微軟
$156,712 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$160,180 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$383,413 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$364,387 交易量
<1%
美團
$383,491 交易量
<1%
百度
$166,063 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s leading 71 percent implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Sonnet models posting the strongest recent results on independent benchmarks such as Arena Elo ratings and real-world coding evaluations through mid-May 2026. Traders see these large language models delivering superior agentic performance, lower error rates on complex tasks, and higher user preference compared with rivals. Google’s 21 percent share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s competitive multimodal and reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 6.5 percent accounts for solid but less dominant GPT-5 family updates. With resolution set for the end of June, any new frontier model releases or updated third-party leaderboards in the coming weeks could still shift trader consensus on which company holds the top AI capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$6,013,834結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s leading 71 percent implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Sonnet models posting the strongest recent results on independent benchmarks such as Arena Elo ratings and real-world coding evaluations through mid-May 2026. Traders see these large language models delivering superior agentic performance, lower error rates on complex tasks, and higher user preference compared with rivals. Google’s 21 percent share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s competitive multimodal and reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 6.5 percent accounts for solid but less dominant GPT-5 family updates. With resolution set for the end of June, any new frontier model releases or updated third-party leaderboards in the coming weeks could still shift trader consensus on which company holds the top AI capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$6,013,834結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s leading 71 percent implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Sonnet models posting the strongest recent results on independent benchmarks such as Arena Elo ratings and real-world coding evaluations through mid-May 2026. Traders see these large language models delivering superior agentic performance, lower error rates on complex tasks, and higher user preference compared with rivals. Google’s 21 percent share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s competitive multimodal and reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 6.5 percent accounts for solid but less dominant GPT-5 family updates. With resolution set for the end of June, any new frontier model releases or updated third-party leaderboards in the coming weeks could still shift trader consensus on which company holds the top AI capabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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