Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an overwhelming 77% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and related updates that deliver leading scores on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified, and reasoning tests such as GPQA Diamond. These releases have narrowed the gap to the top performer while maintaining clear separation from rivals, with no disruptive model launches expected from Google, OpenAI, or xAI in the narrow window ahead. Google sits at 15% amid steady Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in multimodal tasks, whereas OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family trails at 6.5% due to comparatively modest incremental lifts in recent evaluations. This positioning underscores how incremental capability gains and benchmark consistency shape near-term market outcomes in the frontier large language model race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 77%
Google 14%
OpenAI 7.4%
xAI 2.6%
$400,677 交易量
$400,677 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
77%
14%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
微軟
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
美團
<1%
Mistral
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Anthropic 77%
Google 14%
OpenAI 7.4%
xAI 2.6%
$400,677 交易量
$400,677 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$14,660 交易量
77%
$5,606 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$34,197 交易量
7%
xAI
$14,881 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$249,043 交易量
2%
微軟
$5,674 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$6,585 交易量
1%
Meta
$4,175 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$4,912 交易量
<1%
百度
$4,388 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,312 交易量
<1%
美團
$34,076 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$5,546 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$4,723 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$2,898 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an overwhelming 77% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and related updates that deliver leading scores on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified, and reasoning tests such as GPQA Diamond. These releases have narrowed the gap to the top performer while maintaining clear separation from rivals, with no disruptive model launches expected from Google, OpenAI, or xAI in the narrow window ahead. Google sits at 15% amid steady Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in multimodal tasks, whereas OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family trails at 6.5% due to comparatively modest incremental lifts in recent evaluations. This positioning underscores how incremental capability gains and benchmark consistency shape near-term market outcomes in the frontier large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$400,677結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an overwhelming 77% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and related updates that deliver leading scores on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified, and reasoning tests such as GPQA Diamond. These releases have narrowed the gap to the top performer while maintaining clear separation from rivals, with no disruptive model launches expected from Google, OpenAI, or xAI in the narrow window ahead. Google sits at 15% amid steady Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in multimodal tasks, whereas OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family trails at 6.5% due to comparatively modest incremental lifts in recent evaluations. This positioning underscores how incremental capability gains and benchmark consistency shape near-term market outcomes in the frontier large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$400,677結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an overwhelming 77% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and related updates that deliver leading scores on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified, and reasoning tests such as GPQA Diamond. These releases have narrowed the gap to the top performer while maintaining clear separation from rivals, with no disruptive model launches expected from Google, OpenAI, or xAI in the narrow window ahead. Google sits at 15% amid steady Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in multimodal tasks, whereas OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family trails at 6.5% due to comparatively modest incremental lifts in recent evaluations. This positioning underscores how incremental capability gains and benchmark consistency shape near-term market outcomes in the frontier large language model race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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