Anthropic's Claude 4.6 Opus and Sonnet variants drive the 86.5% implied probability through consistent leadership on key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for agentic coding and GPQA Diamond for graduate-level reasoning, bolstered by recent 1-million-token context expansions and computer-use features that enable sustained autonomous workflows. These capabilities have positioned the models ahead of OpenAI's April GPT-5.5 release and Google's Gemini 3.1 series in developer and enterprise evaluations. With end-of-May resolution imminent, trader consensus reflects the absence of disruptive new releases or benchmark reversals in the past two weeks, though any surprise multimodal or efficiency breakthrough from competitors could narrow the gap before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 88%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
字節跳動 <1%
$8,962,256 交易量
$8,962,256 交易量

Anthropic
88%

8%

OpenAI
1%

字節跳動
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

百度
<1%

亞馬遜
<1%

Mistral
<1%

美團
<1%

微軟
<1%
Anthropic 88%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
字節跳動 <1%
$8,962,256 交易量
$8,962,256 交易量

Anthropic
88%

8%

OpenAI
1%

字節跳動
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

百度
<1%

亞馬遜
<1%

Mistral
<1%

美團
<1%

微軟
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude 4.6 Opus and Sonnet variants drive the 86.5% implied probability through consistent leadership on key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for agentic coding and GPQA Diamond for graduate-level reasoning, bolstered by recent 1-million-token context expansions and computer-use features that enable sustained autonomous workflows. These capabilities have positioned the models ahead of OpenAI's April GPT-5.5 release and Google's Gemini 3.1 series in developer and enterprise evaluations. With end-of-May resolution imminent, trader consensus reflects the absence of disruptive new releases or benchmark reversals in the past two weeks, though any surprise multimodal or efficiency breakthrough from competitors could narrow the gap before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions