Recent releases of advanced large language models have sharply shaped trader sentiment on which company leads by the end of May. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, launched in mid-April, has posted leading results on key software-engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench and strong gains in agentic coding and long-context reliability, widening its perceived edge over competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to top select reasoning evaluations like GPQA Diamond, yet lacks a comparable recent update that would close the gap. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, released late April, excels in conversational workflows but trails in specialized coding metrics that currently drive market pricing. With no major model drops scheduled before month-end, traders see limited catalysts to shift the current 89 percent implied probability for Anthropic.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 89%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
字節跳動 <1%
$8,845,223 交易量
$8,845,223 交易量

Anthropic
89%

11%

OpenAI
1%

字節跳動
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

百度
<1%

亞馬遜
<1%

Mistral
<1%

美團
<1%

微軟
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
字節跳動 <1%
$8,845,223 交易量
$8,845,223 交易量

Anthropic
89%

11%

OpenAI
1%

字節跳動
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

百度
<1%

亞馬遜
<1%

Mistral
<1%

美團
<1%

微軟
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of advanced large language models have sharply shaped trader sentiment on which company leads by the end of May. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, launched in mid-April, has posted leading results on key software-engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench and strong gains in agentic coding and long-context reliability, widening its perceived edge over competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to top select reasoning evaluations like GPQA Diamond, yet lacks a comparable recent update that would close the gap. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, released late April, excels in conversational workflows but trails in specialized coding metrics that currently drive market pricing. With no major model drops scheduled before month-end, traders see limited catalysts to shift the current 89 percent implied probability for Anthropic.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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