Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 67%
Google 23%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 交易量
$1,457,416 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
67%
23%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
微軟
1%
Moonshot
1%
美團
<1%
Mistral
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
百度
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 23%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 交易量
$1,457,416 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$30,607 交易量
67%
$18,768 交易量
23%
OpenAI
$49,364 交易量
5%
xAI
$14,994 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$136,551 交易量
1%
Meta
$8,184 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$412,936 交易量
1%
微軟
$11,912 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$203,394 交易量
1%
美團
$270,733 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$59,379 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$12,849 交易量
<1%
百度
$8,651 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$17,686 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,457,416結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,457,416結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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