Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and the reimposed blockade on Iranian ports have tightened global oil supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of seaborne crude trade. This has lifted implied volatility in Brent and WTI futures while pushing up VLCC tanker charter rates and war-risk insurance premiums. European allies including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands have signaled readiness to contribute warships for escort operations once a stable ceasefire holds, with Japan also referenced in joint statements. Traders are monitoring diplomatic talks and any near-term easing that could reduce the need for new transits by the August 31 deadline, alongside upcoming energy inventory data and OPEC+ supply signals that may further shape risk premia.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$233,357 交易量
2026-08-31
美國
5%
法國
2%
英國
1%
荷蘭
1%
澳大利亞
1%
義大利
1%
希臘
1%
德國
1%
$233,357 交易量
美國
$27,521 交易量
5%
法國
$55,368 交易量
2%
英國
$17,925 交易量
1%
荷蘭
$44,070 交易量
1%
澳大利亞
$1,263 交易量
1%
義大利
$4,298 交易量
1%
希臘
$2,460 交易量
1%
德國
$80,452 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and the reimposed blockade on Iranian ports have tightened global oil supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of seaborne crude trade. This has lifted implied volatility in Brent and WTI futures while pushing up VLCC tanker charter rates and war-risk insurance premiums. European allies including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands have signaled readiness to contribute warships for escort operations once a stable ceasefire holds, with Japan also referenced in joint statements. Traders are monitoring diplomatic talks and any near-term easing that could reduce the need for new transits by the August 31 deadline, alongside upcoming energy inventory data and OPEC+ supply signals that may further shape risk premia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
交易量
$233,357結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and the reimposed blockade on Iranian ports have tightened global oil supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of seaborne crude trade. This has lifted implied volatility in Brent and WTI futures while pushing up VLCC tanker charter rates and war-risk insurance premiums. European allies including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands have signaled readiness to contribute warships for escort operations once a stable ceasefire holds, with Japan also referenced in joint statements. Traders are monitoring diplomatic talks and any near-term easing that could reduce the need for new transits by the August 31 deadline, alongside upcoming energy inventory data and OPEC+ supply signals that may further shape risk premia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$233,357結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and the reimposed blockade on Iranian ports have tightened global oil supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of seaborne crude trade. This has lifted implied volatility in Brent and WTI futures while pushing up VLCC tanker charter rates and war-risk insurance premiums. European allies including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands have signaled readiness to contribute warships for escort operations once a stable ceasefire holds, with Japan also referenced in joint statements. Traders are monitoring diplomatic talks and any near-term easing that could reduce the need for new transits by the August 31 deadline, alongside upcoming energy inventory data and OPEC+ supply signals that may further shape risk premia.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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