**Rebel forces from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), coordinating with JNIM, seized parts of Gao and fully recaptured Kidal during the major April 2026 offensive, with some reports indicating partial or divided control in the city itself while Malian forces retained the airport.** Subsequent July ambushes near Anefis and other Gao-region positions inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian Africa Corps personnel, underscoring insurgent momentum in northern Mali. However, Malian forces and their Russian partners have conducted counteroperations, including strikes and claims of neutralizing rebel positions, preventing full consolidation. As of mid-September 2026, rebels hold significant territory in the Gao region and surrounding areas but lack complete control of the city. With only three-and-a-half months remaining until the December 31 deadline, the absence of a decisive recent breakthrough, combined with ongoing government resistance and the logistical challenges of urban capture, underpins the strong trader consensus against full rebel seizure by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
17% 機率
$13,016 交易量
$13,016 交易量
2026-12-31
是
17% 機率
$13,016 交易量
$13,016 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebel forces from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), coordinating with JNIM, seized parts of Gao and fully recaptured Kidal during the major April 2026 offensive, with some reports indicating partial or divided control in the city itself while Malian forces retained the airport.** Subsequent July ambushes near Anefis and other Gao-region positions inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian Africa Corps personnel, underscoring insurgent momentum in northern Mali.
However, Malian forces and their Russian partners have conducted counteroperations, including strikes and claims of neutralizing rebel positions, preventing full consolidation. As of mid-September 2026, rebels hold significant territory in the Gao region and surrounding areas but lack complete control of the city. With only three-and-a-half months remaining until the December 31 deadline, the absence of a decisive recent breakthrough, combined with ongoing government resistance and the logistical challenges of urban capture, underpins the strong trader consensus against full rebel seizure by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
市場開放時間： Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$13,016結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebel forces from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), coordinating with JNIM, seized parts of Gao and fully recaptured Kidal during the major April 2026 offensive, with some reports indicating partial or divided control in the city itself while Malian forces retained the airport.** Subsequent July ambushes near Anefis and other Gao-region positions inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian Africa Corps personnel, underscoring insurgent momentum in northern Mali.
However, Malian forces and their Russian partners have conducted counteroperations, including strikes and claims of neutralizing rebel positions, preventing full consolidation. As of mid-September 2026, rebels hold significant territory in the Gao region and surrounding areas but lack complete control of the city. With only three-and-a-half months remaining until the December 31 deadline, the absence of a decisive recent breakthrough, combined with ongoing government resistance and the logistical challenges of urban capture, underpins the strong trader consensus against full rebel seizure by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
交易量
$13,016結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET**Rebel forces from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), coordinating with JNIM, seized parts of Gao and fully recaptured Kidal during the major April 2026 offensive, with some reports indicating partial or divided control in the city itself while Malian forces retained the airport.** Subsequent July ambushes near Anefis and other Gao-region positions inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian Africa Corps personnel, underscoring insurgent momentum in northern Mali. However, Malian forces and their Russian partners have conducted counteroperations, including strikes and claims of neutralizing rebel positions, preventing full consolidation. As of mid-September 2026, rebels hold significant territory in the Gao region and surrounding areas but lack complete control of the city. With only three-and-a-half months remaining until the December 31 deadline, the absence of a decisive recent breakthrough, combined with ongoing government resistance and the logistical challenges of urban capture, underpins the strong trader consensus against full rebel seizure by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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