Ukrainian forces under the Third Army Corps have conducted a sustained counteroffensive north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast since May 2026, recapturing 125–176 square kilometers through Operation Vivaldi and liberating settlements including Nove, Ridkodub, and Katerynivka. The operation inflicted over 2,000 Russian casualties and captured more than 250 prisoners in its latest phase alone, dismantling Russian infiltration groups and reversing earlier advances that had aimed to create a northern pincer toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. President Zelensky visited the sector on September 30, 2026, as Russian forces shifted pressure southward while maintaining limited activity around the city itself. These battlefield shifts have reduced near-term threats to Lyman and its railroad station, shaping trader assessments of capture prospects by December 31, 2026, amid ongoing attrition and seasonal factors.