**Russian forces have made no confirmed advances into Krasnopillya (Sumy Oblast) in recent months, with Ukrainian border units repelling repeated small-scale assaults and infiltration attempts along the frontier.** As of mid-September 2026, reporting shows Russian activity focused elsewhere, including incremental gains in parts of Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing fighting around the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis in Donetsk, where Ukrainian forces recently launched a localized counter-operation clearing Russian groups from dozens of square kilometers. Earlier 2026 attempts near Krasnopillia produced no territorial consolidation, consistent with the broader slowdown in Russian territorial gains amid Ukrainian defensive preparations and long-range strikes on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. Diplomatic signals from both sides, including U.S.-facilitated talks, add uncertainty around escalation timelines, though no ceasefire has taken hold. Trader consensus on related markets has reflected these barriers, pricing low probabilities for near-term Russian entry absent a major shift in force concentration or Ukrainian withdrawals in the Sumy sector.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$87,906 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
20%
$87,906 交易量
9月30日
$43,324 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have made no confirmed advances into Krasnopillya (Sumy Oblast) in recent months, with Ukrainian border units repelling repeated small-scale assaults and infiltration attempts along the frontier.**
As of mid-September 2026, reporting shows Russian activity focused elsewhere, including incremental gains in parts of Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing fighting around the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis in Donetsk, where Ukrainian forces recently launched a localized counter-operation clearing Russian groups from dozens of square kilometers. Earlier 2026 attempts near Krasnopillia produced no territorial consolidation, consistent with the broader slowdown in Russian territorial gains amid Ukrainian defensive preparations and long-range strikes on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. Diplomatic signals from both sides, including U.S.-facilitated talks, add uncertainty around escalation timelines, though no ceasefire has taken hold. Trader consensus on related markets has reflected these barriers, pricing low probabilities for near-term Russian entry absent a major shift in force concentration or Ukrainian withdrawals in the Sumy sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 24, 2026, 9:19 PM ET
交易量
$87,906結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 9:19 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have made no confirmed advances into Krasnopillya (Sumy Oblast) in recent months, with Ukrainian border units repelling repeated small-scale assaults and infiltration attempts along the frontier.**
As of mid-September 2026, reporting shows Russian activity focused elsewhere, including incremental gains in parts of Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing fighting around the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis in Donetsk, where Ukrainian forces recently launched a localized counter-operation clearing Russian groups from dozens of square kilometers. Earlier 2026 attempts near Krasnopillia produced no territorial consolidation, consistent with the broader slowdown in Russian territorial gains amid Ukrainian defensive preparations and long-range strikes on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. Diplomatic signals from both sides, including U.S.-facilitated talks, add uncertainty around escalation timelines, though no ceasefire has taken hold. Trader consensus on related markets has reflected these barriers, pricing low probabilities for near-term Russian entry absent a major shift in force concentration or Ukrainian withdrawals in the Sumy sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
交易量
$87,906結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 9:19 PM ET**Russian forces have made no confirmed advances into Krasnopillya (Sumy Oblast) in recent months, with Ukrainian border units repelling repeated small-scale assaults and infiltration attempts along the frontier.** As of mid-September 2026, reporting shows Russian activity focused elsewhere, including incremental gains in parts of Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing fighting around the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis in Donetsk, where Ukrainian forces recently launched a localized counter-operation clearing Russian groups from dozens of square kilometers. Earlier 2026 attempts near Krasnopillia produced no territorial consolidation, consistent with the broader slowdown in Russian territorial gains amid Ukrainian defensive preparations and long-range strikes on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure. Diplomatic signals from both sides, including U.S.-facilitated talks, add uncertainty around escalation timelines, though no ceasefire has taken hold. Trader consensus on related markets has reflected these barriers, pricing low probabilities for near-term Russian entry absent a major shift in force concentration or Ukrainian withdrawals in the Sumy sector.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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