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icon for 2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI

2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

icon for 2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI

2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

12月 31

12月 31

是

23% 概率
Polymarket

$66,269 交易量

是

23% 概率
Polymarket

$66,269 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Current leading models like OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro reach only 52% on FrontierMath tiers 1–3, up incrementally from under 2% in late 2024 and 47% earlier this year, reflecting steady but decelerating gains in large language model reasoning. Trader consensus on “No” at 77.5% stems from the benchmark’s design around unpublished, expert-vetted research problems—especially the harder Tier 4 set—where progress has plateaued near 40% amid known scaling limits and absence of paradigm shifts like new architectures or hybrid agentic systems. With just seven months left before 2027, the pace of recent releases and absence of breakthrough announcements make a jump to 90% improbable without unforeseen capability leaps in the coming model cycles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66,269
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Current leading models like OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro reach only 52% on FrontierMath tiers 1–3, up incrementally from under 2% in late 2024 and 47% earlier this year, reflecting steady but decelerating gains in large language model reasoning. Trader consensus on “No” at 77.5% stems from the benchmark’s design around unpublished, expert-vetted research problems—especially the harder Tier 4 set—where progress has plateaued near 40% amid known scaling limits and absence of paradigm shifts like new architectures or hybrid agentic systems. With just seven months left before 2027, the pace of recent releases and absence of breakthrough announcements make a jump to 90% improbable without unforeseen capability leaps in the coming model cycles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66,269
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"AI模型在2027年前在FrontierMath基准测试上得分≥90%？"，概率为 23%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 23¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 23%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"已产生 $66.3K 的总交易量（自Nov 12, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"的当前领先者是"AI模型在2027年前在FrontierMath基准测试上得分≥90%？"，概率为 23%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 23%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

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