Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-40 75%
10-20 11.1%
40-60 10.7%
60+ 1.9%
$323,190 交易量
$323,190 交易量
2026-06-30
0-10
1%
10-20
11%
20-40
75%
40-60
11%
60+
2%
20-40 75%
10-20 11.1%
40-60 10.7%
60+ 1.9%
$323,190 交易量
$323,190 交易量
2026-06-30
0-10
$67,644 交易量
1%
10-20
$57,662 交易量
11%
20-40
$56,534 交易量
75%
40-60
$85,810 交易量
11%
60+
$55,540 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
交易量
$323,190结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$323,190结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETRecent US-Iran diplomatic progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a framework agreement announced mid-June and a signing targeted for June 19, serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on end-of-June transit volumes. Pre-conflict baselines exceeded 100 vessels daily, yet current AIS data shows just 5-10 transits amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums, lingering mine threats, and shipowner caution pending verified safety protocols. The closely matched probabilities across 0-60 ship buckets reflect uncertainty over resumption speed, with potential rebounds toward 40 daily transits hinging on toll-free access and naval de-escalation that could ease supply-chain costs and Brent crude risk premiums. Key swing factors include any last-minute Iranian restrictions or accelerated clearances before the June 30 resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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