No active U.S. criminal investigations, grand jury proceedings, or formal indictments target Bill Gates as of mid-May 2026, which underpins the 96.6% trader consensus that charges will not occur by June 30. Renewed public attention to his past associations with Jeffrey Epstein, following recent document releases, has not produced evidence of prosecutable conduct. Foreign civil claims related to vaccines remain non-criminal matters outside U.S. jurisdiction and timelines. In this environment, any shift would require an abrupt announcement of new evidence or charges, an outcome traders view as improbable given the absence of supporting developments from federal or state authorities.