**James Gallagher (R) and Mike McGuire (D) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in nearly identical shares (roughly 42% each), leaving the November general election in California's redrawn 1st district tightly contested.** The new boundaries, enacted under Proposition 50, shifted registration to about 41% Democratic and 31% Republican, creating a more favorable environment for McGuire than the prior map. Gallagher's strong performance in the concurrent special election occurred under the old lines, while McGuire benefits from the updated partisan balance and his profile as a former state Senate leader. Trader consensus prices reflect this equilibrium, with no dominant polling or fundraising edge yet separating the candidates. Key upcoming factors include fall campaign spending, turnout among independents and suburban voters, and any late shifts in national conditions that could alter the narrow path to victory for either side.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于民主党 20-25% 42%
民主党30%+ 42%
民主党 15-20% 42%
民主党 10-15% 42%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党30%+
42%
民主党 25-30%
40%
民主党 20-25%
42%
民主党 15-20%
42%
民主党 10-15%
42%
民主党5%-10%
42%
民主党 0-5%
42%
共和党获胜
-
民主党 20-25% 42%
民主党30%+ 42%
民主党 15-20% 42%
民主党 10-15% 42%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党30%+
$0 交易量
42%
民主党 25-30%
$0 交易量
40%
民主党 20-25%
$0 交易量
42%
民主党 15-20%
$0 交易量
42%
民主党 10-15%
$0 交易量
42%
民主党5%-10%
$0 交易量
42%
民主党 0-5%
$0 交易量
42%
共和党获胜
$66 交易量
-
The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**James Gallagher (R) and Mike McGuire (D) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in nearly identical shares (roughly 42% each), leaving the November general election in California's redrawn 1st district tightly contested.** The new boundaries, enacted under Proposition 50, shifted registration to about 41% Democratic and 31% Republican, creating a more favorable environment for McGuire than the prior map. Gallagher's strong performance in the concurrent special election occurred under the old lines, while McGuire benefits from the updated partisan balance and his profile as a former state Senate leader. Trader consensus prices reflect this equilibrium, with no dominant polling or fundraising edge yet separating the candidates. Key upcoming factors include fall campaign spending, turnout among independents and suburban voters, and any late shifts in national conditions that could alter the narrow path to victory for either side.
The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
交易量
$66结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETThe 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**James Gallagher (R) and Mike McGuire (D) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in nearly identical shares (roughly 42% each), leaving the November general election in California's redrawn 1st district tightly contested.** The new boundaries, enacted under Proposition 50, shifted registration to about 41% Democratic and 31% Republican, creating a more favorable environment for McGuire than the prior map. Gallagher's strong performance in the concurrent special election occurred under the old lines, while McGuire benefits from the updated partisan balance and his profile as a former state Senate leader. Trader consensus prices reflect this equilibrium, with no dominant polling or fundraising edge yet separating the candidates. Key upcoming factors include fall campaign spending, turnout among independents and suburban voters, and any late shifts in national conditions that could alter the narrow path to victory for either side.
The 2026 CA-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET**James Gallagher (R) and Mike McGuire (D) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in nearly identical shares (roughly 42% each), leaving the November general election in California's redrawn 1st district tightly contested.** The new boundaries, enacted under Proposition 50, shifted registration to about 41% Democratic and 31% Republican, creating a more favorable environment for McGuire than the prior map. Gallagher's strong performance in the concurrent special election occurred under the old lines, while McGuire benefits from the updated partisan balance and his profile as a former state Senate leader. Trader consensus prices reflect this equilibrium, with no dominant polling or fundraising edge yet separating the candidates. Key upcoming factors include fall campaign spending, turnout among independents and suburban voters, and any late shifts in national conditions that could alter the narrow path to victory for either side.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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