Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican challenger Larry Thompson advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California’s 32nd House district in November. The district carries a Democratic lean consistent with historical voting patterns and recent redistricting adjustments that preserved a partisan voter index advantage for Democrats. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting Sherman’s long incumbency and the area’s registration edge, yet the general election remains months away with potential for shifts driven by turnout in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, national midterm dynamics, or candidate-specific campaign developments. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around mid-30s to low-40s points for a Democratic win while assigning meaningful probability to a narrower or Republican outcome, indicating uncertainty over the precise spread amid limited new polling or events since the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于民主党45%+ 43%
民主党 30-35% 43%
民主党20-25% 43%
民主党 15-20% 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党45%+
43%
民主党 40-45%
40%
民主党 35-40%
40%
民主党 30-35%
43%
民主党领先25-30%
40%
民主党20-25%
43%
民主党 15-20%
43%
民主党 5-15%
40%
民主党 0-5%
41%
共和党获胜
40%
民主党45%+ 43%
民主党 30-35% 43%
民主党20-25% 43%
民主党 15-20% 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党45%+
$0 交易量
43%
民主党 40-45%
$0 交易量
40%
民主党 35-40%
$0 交易量
40%
民主党 30-35%
$0 交易量
43%
民主党领先25-30%
$0 交易量
40%
民主党20-25%
$0 交易量
43%
民主党 15-20%
$0 交易量
43%
民主党 5-15%
$0 交易量
40%
民主党 0-5%
$0 交易量
41%
共和党获胜
$0 交易量
40%
The 2026 CA-32 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-32 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican challenger Larry Thompson advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California’s 32nd House district in November. The district carries a Democratic lean consistent with historical voting patterns and recent redistricting adjustments that preserved a partisan voter index advantage for Democrats. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting Sherman’s long incumbency and the area’s registration edge, yet the general election remains months away with potential for shifts driven by turnout in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, national midterm dynamics, or candidate-specific campaign developments. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around mid-30s to low-40s points for a Democratic win while assigning meaningful probability to a narrower or Republican outcome, indicating uncertainty over the precise spread amid limited new polling or events since the primary.
The 2026 CA-32 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-32 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-32 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ETThe 2026 CA-32 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-32 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican challenger Larry Thompson advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California’s 32nd House district in November. The district carries a Democratic lean consistent with historical voting patterns and recent redistricting adjustments that preserved a partisan voter index advantage for Democrats. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting Sherman’s long incumbency and the area’s registration edge, yet the general election remains months away with potential for shifts driven by turnout in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, national midterm dynamics, or candidate-specific campaign developments. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around mid-30s to low-40s points for a Democratic win while assigning meaningful probability to a narrower or Republican outcome, indicating uncertainty over the precise spread amid limited new polling or events since the primary.
The 2026 CA-32 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-32 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-32 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican challenger Larry Thompson advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California’s 32nd House district in November. The district carries a Democratic lean consistent with historical voting patterns and recent redistricting adjustments that preserved a partisan voter index advantage for Democrats. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting Sherman’s long incumbency and the area’s registration edge, yet the general election remains months away with potential for shifts driven by turnout in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, national midterm dynamics, or candidate-specific campaign developments. Trader pricing on victory margins clusters around mid-30s to low-40s points for a Democratic win while assigning meaningful probability to a narrower or Republican outcome, indicating uncertainty over the precise spread amid limited new polling or events since the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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