The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$105,161 交易量
$105,161 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$105,161 交易量
$105,161 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$105,161结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$105,161结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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