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icon for 联邦拨款在10月1日失效?

联邦拨款在10月1日失效?

icon for 联邦拨款在10月1日失效?

联邦拨款在10月1日失效?

15% 概率
Polymarket
最新
15% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders advanced multiple continuing resolution measures in July and early August 2026 to extend discretionary funding at current levels past the September 30 fiscal year-end. The House approved a clean CR through December 4, while the Senate passed its version on August 8 funding agencies into mid-December, shifting the focus to House concurrence before the October 1 deadline. These procedural steps, taken well ahead of the appropriations lapse date and amid midterm election pressures, have reduced near-term shutdown risk. Traders price the low probability of a lapse because past patterns show both chambers routinely enact such stopgap legislation when regular appropriations bills stall, and no major procedural or partisan barriers have emerged in recent votes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.

A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,340
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders advanced multiple continuing resolution measures in July and early August 2026 to extend discretionary funding at current levels past the September 30 fiscal year-end. The House approved a clean CR through December 4, while the Senate passed its version on August 8 funding agencies into mid-December, shifting the focus to House concurrence before the October 1 deadline. These procedural steps, taken well ahead of the appropriations lapse date and amid midterm election pressures, have reduced near-term shutdown risk. Traders price the low probability of a lapse because past patterns show both chambers routinely enact such stopgap legislation when regular appropriations bills stall, and no major procedural or partisan barriers have emerged in recent votes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.

A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,340
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"联邦拨款在10月1日失效?"是 Polymarket 上的一个预测市场,交易者根据自己对事件是否会发生的判断买卖"是"或"否"的份额。当前社区预测的概率为 14%("Yes")。例如,如果"是"的价格为 14¢,则市场集体认为该事件发生的概率为 14%。这些赔率会随着交易者对新动态和信息的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"联邦拨款在10月1日失效?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Aug 5, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"联邦拨款在10月1日失效?"上交易,只需选择你认为答案是"是"还是"否"。每一方都有一个反映市场隐含概率的当前价格。输入你的金额并点击"交易"。如果你买入"是"的份额且结果为"是",每份支付 $1。如果结果为"否",你的"是"份额支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额以锁定利润或止损。

"联邦拨款在10月1日失效?"的当前概率为 14%("Yes")。这意味着 Polymarket 社区目前认为该事件发生的概率为 14%。这些赔率基于实际交易实时更新,持续提供市场预期信号。

"联邦拨款在10月1日失效?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。