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icon for 哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人
地缘政治·区域溢出效应

哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人

icon for 哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人
地缘政治·区域溢出效应

哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人

$164,765 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$164,765 交易量

Polymarket

6月30日

$163,810 交易量

2%

12月31日

$955 交易量

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's monarch since 1999, remains firmly in power as the de facto leader, actively issuing royal orders in late April 2026 to prorogue Parliament, address repercussions from Iranian attacks earlier that month, and task Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa with accountability for national betrayals. Early May developments, including diplomatic meetings with Ukraine's Zelenskyy and congratulations to Russia's Putin, underscore his ongoing engagement amid Gulf tensions. No credible reports indicate health issues, abdication plans, or removal risks; trader consensus reflects the absolute monarchy's stability under agnatic primogeniture succession, with low probabilities driven by his age (76) and potential regional escalations before December 31, 2026 resolution. No major shifts in the past 30 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$164,765
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's monarch since 1999, remains firmly in power as the de facto leader, actively issuing royal orders in late April 2026 to prorogue Parliament, address repercussions from Iranian attacks earlier that month, and task Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa with accountability for national betrayals. Early May developments, including diplomatic meetings with Ukraine's Zelenskyy and congratulations to Russia's Putin, underscore his ongoing engagement amid Gulf tensions. No credible reports indicate health issues, abdication plans, or removal risks; trader consensus reflects the absolute monarchy's stability under agnatic primogeniture succession, with low probabilities driven by his age (76) and potential regional escalations before December 31, 2026 resolution. No major shifts in the past 30 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$164,765
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"12月31日"，概率为 14%，其次是"6月30日"，概率为 2%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 14¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 14%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人"已产生 $164.8K 的总交易量（自Mar 4, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人"的当前领先者是"12月31日"，概率为 14%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 14%。紧随其后的结果是"6月30日"，概率为 2%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哈马德·本·伊萨·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林领导人"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。